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　　机构：交银国际

　　评级：BUY

　　目标价：35港元

　　FY17 net profit surged 108% YoY, 5-10% higher than consensus. Geely’s net profit came in 5-10% higher than market expectations, thanks to the robust volume growth and ASP improvement. Sales volume jumped 63% YoY to 1.25m units and ASP rose 9% YoY. GPM improved from 18.3% in FY16 to 19.4% in FY17, mainly driven by better product mix and higher ASP of SUV. Operating margin expanded from 11.0% in FY16 to 13.2% in FY17, thanks to economies of scale.  

　　Geely brand’s new models continue to enhance product mix in FY18. Geely’s robust earnings growth in FY17 was mainly driven by four new models launched in FY16. Meanwhile, there were only three SUV/Crossover models launched in 2H17, and we expect them to fuel sales volume growth in 1H18. In FY18, Geely will launch its first MPV, two sedans, two SUVs and two EVs. These new models should enhance its product mix and improve model lineup. Geely also guided that its exports business should see improvement in FY18, especially in Southeast Asia. 

　　Lynk 01 order backlog >30k units; demand remains strong. Lynk 01’s current backlog is over 30k units, with a waiting period of 3-4 months. However, the suPPly constraint of key components is likely to have negative impact on production ramp-up in the near term, in our view. We expect production to ramp up in 2Q after its Zhangjiakou factory commences operation. Currently, the powertrain of Lynk 01 uses Volvo’s 2.0T engine and the supply is roughly 7k/month. We expect the situation to improve after the second engine factory commences operation in 2H18.  

　　Outlook intact, maintain Buy. Geely will have its strongest ever model pipeline in FY18, including six from Geely brand and two from Lynk & Co, covering both the low-end and mid-end markets. We remain confident on its volume growth and margin improvement in FY18. Meanwhile, the slowdown of auto market ahead should speed up sector consolidation and benefit industry leaders such as Geely .  We maintain our earnings estimates at the moment and our Buy rating and TP of HK$35.00. 

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