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　　机构：中金公司

　　评级：增持

　　目标价：3.8港元

　　Coal prices to face downside pressure as slack season aPProaches:supply shortages eased as temperatures improved and coal minesresumed production after the Spring Festival. Given the weakdemand over the slack season, we expect coal prices to face furtherdownside pressure. We expect a tight balance in 2018 with ASP atRmb640–650/t.

　　Several projects likely to begin trial production in 2018, theseinclude: Nalinhe No. 2 project , Mudu Chaideng project and Xiaohuigou project . The firm targets75mn tonnes sales volume of self-produced coal . It alsoexpects its costs to remain stable and revenue to rise 5%.

　　Earnings forecast

　　We expect average coal prices to stay flat YoY in 2018. To factor in thehigher coal prices, we raise our 2018 EPS forecast by 42% fromRmb0.19 to Rmb0.27, and introduce that of 2019e at Rmb0.26.

　　Valuation and recommendation 

　　China Coal-H is trading at 10x 2018e P/E. Maintain HOLD on bothChina Coal’s A- & H-shares and maintain their target prices ofRmb6.00 and HK$3.80 .

　　Risks

　　Higher-than-expected incremental supply. 

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