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中教控股(00839.HK):An expanding national private higher educatio
发布时间:2018-03-21 16:59 来源:格隆汇

  机构:农业银行

  评级:买入

  目标价:14.11 港元

  School locations, education quality and graduate employment track records enablehigher tuitions. The Group’s original portfolio schools in Guangdong and Jiangxi have ahigher tuition than peers due to better school location, teaching quality, and graduateemployment track records. In the 2017/18 school year, its portfolio schools were able to raisethe tuition for certain programs.

  Growth suPPorted by acquisition and increasing fees. We believe addition of the twoacquired schools, expanding student enrollment, and rising tuition would result in revenueand net profit expanding at 29.4% and 34.5% CAGRs in 2017-20E. Revenue growth inFY18E-19E would be ~38% YoY due to the consolidation effect. We also expect GPM andNPM to improve to 57.7% and 50.7% in FY20E from 56.6% and47.9% in FY18E.

  Initiate with BUY; TP at HK$ 14.11. We believe the Group’s current operation scale, solidexpansion plan, and future growth prospect support a premium valuation. We initiate withBUY. Based on our DCF model, we set TP at HK$ 14.11, which represents 29.43x/21.61x18E/19E P/E or 2.74x/2.43x 18E/19E P/B. Currently, the average 18/E P/E of the highereducation sector in HK market is 19.51x.

  Risk factors: 1) Growth risk; 2) Cost risk; 3) Acquisition/business cooperation risk; 4)Education quality and student dropout risk; 5) Expansion bottleneck risk; 6) Regulatory risk;7) Reputation risk; 8) EPS dilution effect due to IPO. 

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